华泰期货：下游需求寡淡不改铜价偏强走势

Market Overview - The main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 92,250 CNY/ton and closed at 92,210 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.39% from the previous trading day. The night session saw the contract open at 92,700 CNY/ton and close at 94,080 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.95% [2][11]. Spot Market - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot price ranged from a discount of 50 to a premium of 60 CNY/ton, with an average premium of 5 CNY/ton, down 25 CNY from the previous day. The price range was 92,400 to 92,930 CNY/ton. Market purchasing sentiment weakened as copper prices approached psychological thresholds, and sellers increased their willingness to sell as year-end delivery approached [3][12]. Macroeconomic Insights - In the U.S. job market, initial jobless claims surged by 44,000 to 236,000, the highest increase since March 2020. However, continuing claims fell to 1.84 million, marking the largest single-week decline in four years. Additionally, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed significantly by nearly 11% to 52.8 billion USD in September, well below the expected 63.3 billion USD, the lowest since June 2020 [4][13]. Mining Developments - Solis Minerals Limited announced that its Cinto copper project in southern Peru has received drilling permits, paving the way for anticipated drilling in the coming weeks. The project is located near the Toquepala copper mine and is part of a significant geological system in southern Peru. Drilling preparations are set to begin in December 2025 [5][14]. - Chile's national copper company, Codelco, reported a copper production of 111,000 tons in October, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%. In contrast, BHP's Escondida mine produced 120,600 tons, an increase of 11.7% year-on-year, while the Collahuasi mine saw a production drop of 29.3% to 35,000 tons [5][14]. Consumption Trends - According to Mysteel, domestic copper tube production in November 2025 reached 138,300 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons or 13.55% from October. The overall capacity utilization rate was 59.69%, up 7.12% month-on-month. The increase in production was supported by extended production cycles and demand from key market events [7][16]. Inventory and Warehouse Data - LME warehouse stocks decreased by 700 tons to 165,850 tons, while SHFE warehouse stocks increased by 2,530 tons to 31,461 tons. As of December 11, domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory stood at 163,000 tons, a slight increase of 2,700 tons from the previous week [7][16]. Strategy Outlook - The overall strategy for copper is neutral. Following the Federal Reserve's expected 25 basis point rate cut, the tightness in the spot market may ease post-delivery on the 15th. However, high copper prices have led to cautious sentiment among downstream buyers, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for the time being [8][17].