绿色液体燃料万亿级市场蓄势待发

Core Viewpoint - Green liquid fuels, including green methanol, green ammonia, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), are becoming essential for decarbonization across various industries such as shipping, aviation, and chemicals, due to their zero or ultra-low carbon emissions, high energy density, and ease of storage and transportation [1] Industry Summary - The demand for green liquid fuels is transitioning from "potential" to "rigid" as domestic and international clean energy systems and decarbonization policies improve, guided by the European shipping carbon tax mechanism and long-term net-zero framework goals [1] - Despite a one-year delay in the IMO net-zero framework vote, the trend towards green transformation in the shipping industry remains unchanged [1] - The estimated potential demand for green methanol, green ammonia, and SAF by 2025 is approximately 3 million tons, 2.5 million tons, and 2.5 million tons, respectively, with projections for 2030 reaching 36 million tons, 23 million tons, and 11 million tons, indicating future growth rates of 11 times, 9.2 times, and 3.5 times over the next five years [1] Market Potential - The market for green liquid fuels is expected to experience nearly tenfold growth in the next five years, driven by carbon tax policies and continuous cost reductions, with a long-term market potential reaching trillions of yuan [1] - Domestic manufacturers are leveraging abundant and inexpensive green electricity resources, complete equipment supply, and downstream support systems to accelerate the development of the green liquid fuel industry and business models [1] - Key areas of focus include integrated production manufacturers of green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol, as well as suppliers of core equipment such as electrolyzers [1]