美联储决议后美元前景 转弱下破风险加剧

Core Viewpoint - The mid-term outlook for the US dollar has significantly deteriorated following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a technical shift towards a bearish trend [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the Fed's decision, the dollar index experienced its largest single-day drop since September, closing below the critical level of 98.799 [1] - The dollar index's decline is attributed to the Fed's forward guidance, which did not meet some investors' hawkish expectations, preventing the dollar from recovering most of its losses [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technical analysis indicates an increasing probability of the dollar index testing the lower range of the daily cloud chart between 98.292 and 99.201 [1] - The 14-day momentum indicator is in negative territory, reinforcing the current bearish outlook [1] - A breach below the cloud's lower boundary could open up further downside potential for the dollar index [1] Group 3: Market Logic - The primary narrative in dollar trading has shifted from "end of rate hikes" to "path towards rate cuts" [1] - The Fed has signaled an openness to further rate cuts, which diminishes the dollar's interest rate differential advantage and triggers significant technical selling [1] Group 4: Future Focus - Market attention will be on whether the dollar index can find effective support at the cloud's lower boundary [1] - If this support level is breached, the dollar index may enter a deeper correction, targeting the September low of 96.224 [1] - Upcoming US economic data releases will be closely monitored to assess the Fed's rate cut pace and potential [1]