英国央行政策动向成汇率核心

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is influenced by the upcoming monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, with market participants exhibiting a cautious outlook [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The GBP/USD has shown resilience, with a 0.63% increase in November and maintaining a strong performance in December, supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut and a £26 billion tax adjustment plan in the UK [1] - UK inflation remains above target, with October CPI at 3.6% and core inflation at 3.4%, limiting the Bank of England's ability to cut rates [1] - The US economy shows signs of cooling, but remains resilient, with stable employment and weak consumer and manufacturing sectors, reinforcing expectations for Fed easing [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - There is a significant divergence in market expectations for the two central banks, with an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December, and predictions of multiple cuts in 2026 [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England on December 18, but there are internal disagreements regarding inflation risks [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD has been trending upwards along short-term moving averages, with effective support at the 10-day moving average [2] - The exchange rate has broken above the 200-day moving average at 1.3326 but faces resistance at the 100-day moving average of 1.3365; a breakout above 1.3370 could target 1.3420-1.3450 [2] - Long-term forecasts suggest a trading range of 1.31-1.37 for GBP/USD by 2026, with UBS predicting a rise to 1.40 by September and JPMorgan forecasting 1.39 by March [2] Group 4: Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include the Federal Reserve's meeting and the Bank of England's decision on December 18, which could significantly impact the GBP/USD exchange rate [2]