澳元回升澳大利亚经济复苏

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a slight recovery against the US dollar (USD), trading around 0.6663, with a daily increase of 0.0150% and a range between 0.6674 and 0.6656, reflecting recent narrow fluctuations [1] - The core logic behind the strengthening of the AUD is the divergence in policies between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), combined with Australia's economic recovery and structural changes in the commodity market, which support the AUD and suppress the USD index [1] - The RBA's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.6% during its last meeting of the year on December 9 is a key support factor, as it signals a cautious stance towards inflation and economic recovery, significantly reducing market expectations for rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The inflation in Australia has rebounded after a significant drop from its peak in 2022, with the RBA noting that some of this increase may be temporary, but there are concerns about persistent inflationary signs [1] - Economic recovery in Australia is driven by consumption and investment, with a recovering real estate market and strong wage growth, despite rising unemployment and slowing job growth [1] - The Fed's recent "hawkish rate cut" on December 11, which lowered the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, is interpreted as a signal to slow down easing, while the resumption of short-term Treasury purchases starting December 12 is seen as dovish, alleviating pressure on the AUD [2] Group 3 - The technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD pair is in a range-bound pattern, with key support at 0.6650 and resistance at 0.6700 and 0.6750, suggesting that market operations are primarily range-based [2] - Future focus will be on the policy directions of both central banks, with potential volatility in the AUD depending on RBA officials' comments regarding inflation control or policy adjustments, as well as Fed officials' statements and US core data impacting USD trends [2] - Fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly iron ore, directly affect the supply and demand for the AUD, and changes in global risk sentiment will also impact the commodity currency [2]