日本央行加息预期难改长期利差

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the fluctuations in the USD/JPY exchange rate, influenced by the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike and the persistent long-term interest rate differential between the US and Japan [1][2] - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda has signaled a hawkish stance, with a 91% market expectation for a 25 basis point rate hike in December, driven by anticipated wage increases and high inflation [1] - Despite the short-term support for the yen, the long-term outlook remains weak due to the significant interest rate differential, which exceeds 5 percentage points, maintaining the attractiveness of USD assets [1] Group 2 - The focus will shift to Japan's labor cash income data and US initial jobless claims, which are critical for the Bank of Japan's rate decision and the USD's performance [2] - The continuous depreciation of the yen is exacerbating inflationary pressures in Japan, increasing import costs and complicating the government's efforts to alleviate living costs [2] - The Bank of Japan faces a dilemma: raising rates could curb depreciation and inflation but may hinder economic recovery, while delaying hikes could intensify pressures, impacting the long-term trajectory of the yen [2]