加央行鹰派立场成加元核心支撑

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is experiencing a low-level fluctuation against the US dollar (USD), primarily due to the divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), alongside the resilience of the Canadian economy and support from rebounding oil prices [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Bank of Canada maintained its policy interest rate at 2.25% during the monetary policy meeting on December 10, indicating that the current rate is suitable for supporting structural economic transformation, marking the end of the rate-cutting cycle [1]. - Canada's GDP grew by 2.6% in Q3, significantly exceeding market expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.5% in November, indicating improvements in the job market [1]. - The inflation rate in Canada was stable at 2.2% in October, remaining close to the 2% target, with core inflation between 2.5% and 3%, suggesting manageable inflationary pressures [2]. Group 2: US Monetary Policy and Market Impact - The Federal Reserve completed its third rate cut of the year on December 11, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75%, with internal dissent among officials indicating significant divisions [2]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments on the downside risks to the US labor market have heightened expectations for further easing, contributing to a decline in the USD index below 99, which diminishes the dollar's attractiveness [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Focus - The technical outlook for USD/CAD shows a bearish trend, with the price consistently trading below the five-day moving average and a lack of rebound momentum [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 1.3740 and 1.3680, with potential for further decline towards 1.3600 if these levels are breached [3]. - Market attention is expected to focus on statements from BoC and Fed officials, trade-related data, and international oil price movements, which are crucial for CAD as a commodity currency [3].