梁建章：如何减少内卷

Core Viewpoint - The primary issue facing the Chinese economy and enterprises is the need to reduce "involution," which is characterized as ineffective competition leading to a zero-sum or negative-sum game, particularly due to resource bottlenecks [3][15]. Economic Challenges - Many industries in China are experiencing demand growth that lags behind supply growth, resulting in price reductions and increased difficulties for enterprises [3][15]. - The tourism industry exemplifies this trend, where domestic tourism numbers are increasing moderately, but supply growth (e.g., hotels, attractions) is outpacing demand, leading to price declines of 7% to 10% [4][16]. Demand Creation Strategies - To address the issue of involution, it is crucial to create more demand, particularly through increasing consumer demand rather than relying solely on investment [4][16]. - Expanding foreign demand, especially in inbound tourism, is identified as a significant opportunity, with potential for substantial GDP contributions if inbound tourism can reach 1% to 2% of the economy [5][18]. Consumer Spending Enhancement - The current economic environment is characterized by deflation, with many consumers hesitant to spend due to economic uncertainty. A proposed solution is to distribute cash directly to consumers through fiscal deficits, potentially amounting to 2% to 3% of GDP [6][19]. - This approach is deemed appropriate given China's production capacity and current deflationary pressures, which would mitigate inflation risks typically associated with cash distribution [7][19]. Addressing Declining Birth Rates - The declining birth rate poses a significant risk to the economy, with births dropping from over 18 million in 2016 to approximately 8 million in the current year, a reduction of over 50% [8][20]. - To counteract this trend, financial support should be directed towards young people, who are most in need of assistance for family planning and child-rearing [8][20]. Work-Life Balance and Education Reform - There is a call for reducing overall working hours and increasing vacation time to improve work-life balance, which could encourage family growth [10][21]. - Education reform is essential to reduce the current "involution" in the education system, which discourages young people from having children due to the pressures of excessive competition and examination [11][22]. Summary of Recommendations - The proposed measures to reduce involution in Chinese society include: increasing foreign tourism, distributing cash to consumers, encouraging higher birth rates, providing more vacation time, and reducing examination pressures [12][23].