Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the potential for short-term expansion and long-term undervaluation in the restaurant industry, highlighting the need to focus on operational improvements and high valuation during expansion periods [1] - Key recommended stocks include Yum China (09987) for its operational capabilities, Little Garden (00999) for its strong team and supply chain during store expansion, Haidilao (06862) for its execution during reform, and Dashihua (01405) for its high potential in store expansion [1] - The service consumption policy is expected to benefit the restaurant sector significantly, with specific measures introduced to boost service consumption, making restaurants a core focus of these initiatives [1] Group 2 - The restaurant sector is showing a differentiated performance, with its revenue share in the retail sector increasing and demonstrating higher elasticity compared to the overall retail sector [2] - In 2024, restaurant revenue is projected to account for 12% of total retail sales, with growth rates of 20% and 5% for 2023 and 2024 respectively, outpacing the overall retail growth rates of 7% and 4% [2] Group 3 - The Japanese restaurant industry is experiencing high valuation premiums, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements alongside multi-format integration [3] - The external dining industry in Japan has faced a decline since its peak in 1997, with a recovery only starting in 2006, and the restaurant sector's market capitalization in consumer services has increased by 9 percentage points since 2014 [3] - Key changes in the Japanese restaurant sector during downturns include balancing extreme cost-effectiveness with consumer experience, achieving high store efficiency through supply chain optimization, and the emergence of restaurant giants through multi-category integration [3]
西部证券:推荐餐饮业短期扩张与长期稳健低估标的 关注经营改善与扩张期高估标的