张津镭:数据与政策双利好引爆金市 日内回踩低多为主

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a significant increase in U.S. unemployment claims, which has strengthened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue easing monetary policy. Additionally, the Fed's announcement to purchase short-term government bonds is interpreted as a form of quantitative easing, injecting substantial liquidity into the financial system, which is favorable for gold priced in dollars [1][5]. Market Performance - On December 12, gold exhibited a typical bottom-rebound pattern, initially rebounding slightly before falling back, with a low of $4203. After stabilizing, it saw a strong upward movement during the U.S. trading session, peaking at $4285 and closing at approximately $4278, marking three consecutive days of gains [1][5]. - The market sentiment has shifted to a more optimistic outlook, with short-term trends appearing strong. However, the price increase of over $80 in one day has pushed technical indicators into overbought territory, and gold is approaching a critical resistance level at $4300 [6][7]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 44,000 to 236,000, the largest weekly increase since March 2020, which contrasts sharply with the low levels seen during the Thanksgiving period. This data supports the Fed's assessment of a cooling labor market [1][5]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to initiate a $40 billion purchase of short-term government bonds is aimed at managing market liquidity, contributing to a total of approximately $55 billion in liquidity injections, which has pressured the dollar and benefited gold [1][5]. Technical Analysis - The daily chart shows a solid bullish candlestick, with prices above the MA7/MA10 and close to the upper Bollinger Band, indicating bullish dominance. The four-hour chart maintains a golden cross, suggesting continued upward momentum after any short-term pullbacks [6]. - Key resistance levels to watch include the psychological $4300 mark, while support levels are identified around $4260 and $4220-4210 for potential short positions if the price breaks below [8]. Trading Recommendations - Suggested trading strategy includes going long on gold at $4268-4267 with a stop loss at $4259 and a target of $4295-4300. If the price drops below $4260, consider shorting on rebounds with targets set at $4220-4210 [3][8]. Upcoming Events - Key speeches from Federal Reserve officials are scheduled, which may influence market volatility, particularly if any hawkish comments are made [4][8].