招银国际：对中国可选消费行业持“同步大市”评级 展望偏向谨慎

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates a cautious outlook for China's discretionary consumption sector in 2026, with an expected overall retail sales growth of approximately 3.5%, a slight decrease from about 4% in 2025, influenced by factors such as the delayed Spring Festival, extended holidays, potential recovery in the real estate sector, and a thriving stock market [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The industry valuation is likely to have bottomed out this year, currently at around 15 times the price-to-earnings ratio, which is still not expensive compared to the average of about 20 times over the past eight years [1] - The overall view remains conservative due to potential slowing growth in the next 12 months and high geopolitical risks, suggesting that valuations may not rise quickly without significant positive policies or a clear recovery in real estate [1] Group 2: Subsector Ratings - CMB International prioritizes the following subsectors for 2026: 1) Tea and coffee, 2) Trendy toys, 3) Apparel, 4) Textiles; maintaining a "market perform" rating for: 5) Dining, 6) Sports goods, 7) Travel and hotel, 8) Home appliances [2] - The ratings for the tea and coffee sector and trendy toys are maintained at "outperform," while the apparel and textile sectors have been upgraded to "outperform" [2] Group 3: Investment Themes - The investment themes are categorized into different types of consumption, with a focus on: 1) Essential consumption (frugality, low price, high cost-performance), related companies include: Guoquan (02157), Yum China (09987), Luckin Coffee (LKNCY.US), Dashihua (01405), Bosideng (03998) [2] - Other themes include compensatory consumption (small pleasures, affordable entertainment, emotional value, experiential) and defensive consumption (gold, silver, high dividends), with related companies such as Bosideng (03998), Jiangnan Buyi (03306), Li Lang (01234), and Taobo (06110), all rated as "buy" [2] Group 4: Large-ticket Consumption - CMB International is less optimistic about large-ticket consumption (durables, real estate-related, luxury goods, high-end tourism), but in a bullish scenario (if wealth effects are strong with a thriving stock market and stabilizing real estate), it could benefit large-ticket consumption, with related companies including Haier Smart Home (06690, 600690.SH), Midea Group (00300, 000300.SH), Haidilao (06862), and Anta Sports (02020), all rated as "buy" [3]