华福证券：浆纸共振期待板块回暖 优选浆纸一体化龙头

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that recent disturbances in overseas supply of softwood pulp and the rising prices of hardwood pulp since September have narrowed the price gap between softwood and hardwood pulp, indirectly supporting the import prices of softwood pulp [1] - The report highlights that the external market pulp prices have increased in December, with softwood pulp prices rising by $20 per ton to $700 per ton and hardwood pulp prices also increasing by $20 per ton to $570 per ton [1] - The report notes that several overseas pulp mills are facing supply disruptions, including the permanent closure of Domtar's Crofton softwood pulp mill in Canada and planned shutdowns at MetsFibre's Rauma mill [1] Group 2 - The report states that the current paper prices in the wood pulp sector are at a cyclical bottom, with significant declines in prices for various paper types, including a drop of 1.8% for white card paper and 12.1% for double glue paper [2] - It mentions that the operating rates for white card paper and copper plate paper are currently below 70%, while double glue paper operates at 50%-60%, indicating low production activity [2] - The report anticipates a marginal improvement in demand for white card and double glue paper due to the traditional peak consumption season, with leading paper companies issuing price increase notices [2] Group 3 - The report indicates that new production capacity for hardwood pulp is limited, with significant increases in capacity expected from companies like Liansheng and SUZANO in 2024, but a slowdown in new capacity growth for hardwood pulp is anticipated from 2025 to 2027 [3] - It highlights that the risk of closure for some major bleached softwood pulp capacities exists, which could impact supply [3] - The report suggests that the increasing investment in integrated pulp and paper projects by paper companies will raise the demand for wood chips, subsequently pushing up the costs of self-produced pulp [3]