阶段性供应端扰动增强 沪锌期价存一定向上弹性

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in the domestic non-ferrous metal market, particularly in zinc futures, which rose by 2.96% to 23,680.00 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - On the macroeconomic front, initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose by 44,000 to 236,000, the largest increase since the onset of the global pandemic in 2020, leading to a decline in the dollar [2] - The domestic central economic work conference remains positive, aiding economic recovery [2] Group 3 - Supply-side analysis indicates that domestic mineral supply is under pressure due to winter production cuts in the north and reduced import profits, with TC (treatment charge) continuing to decline and mineral inventories decreasing [2] - Smelting profits are severely impacted by TC, approaching last year's low profit levels [2] Group 4 - Demand-side analysis shows that the downstream market is gradually entering a low season, with the real estate sector dragging down performance, while infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening [2] - However, policy support in the automotive sector brings some positive developments [2] Group 5 - Looking ahead, there is an expectation of zinc element oversupply next year, but the current domestic oversupply has already been realized this year, suggesting a potential correction of weak expectations [2] - In the short term, bearish factors are somewhat constrained, and with increased supply-side disturbances during the TC Benchmark negotiation phase, prices may have some upward elasticity, warranting attention to short-term trading opportunities [2]