国内新粮上量有所增加 玉米期货反弹空间或有限

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a significant increase in corn inventory and production forecasts in Brazil, while the U.S. shows strong export sales for the 2025/2026 corn season [1][3]. Group 1: Corn Inventory and Production - As of December 10, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major processing enterprises in 12 regions of China is 2.94 million tons, reflecting a 6.75% increase [1]. - Brazil's total corn planting area for 2025 is projected to be 22.250454 million hectares, unchanged from last month's estimate, with a 4.2% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - Brazil's total corn production is forecasted at 141.617742 million tons, remaining stable from last month's estimate, but showing a 23.5% increase year-on-year [1]. Group 2: U.S. Corn Export Sales - For the week ending November 13, U.S. net corn export sales for the 2025/2026 marketing year reached 2.38 million tons, up from 0.98 million tons the previous week [1]. - U.S. corn shipments for the 2025/2026 marketing year totaled 2.477 million tons, compared to 1.529 million tons the prior week [1]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Outlook - According to Zhengxin Futures, the U.S. corn market is expected to remain strong due to increased exports and rising domestic demand, although the overall corn production is expected to keep prices low in the medium to long term [3]. - Guodu Futures notes that some new grain quality in North China has been affected, leading to increased purchases of Northeast grain, which has resulted in a rebound in corn prices, though the overall production surplus limits the extent of this rebound [3].