八大券商首席最新发声

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, outlines key tasks for 2026, emphasizing the need for policy coordination to stimulate economic potential and stabilize domestic demand [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Policy Direction - The conference aims for a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2026, focusing on "qualitative effective improvement and reasonable quantitative growth" [2][7]. - The emphasis on "domestic supply strong, demand weak" indicates a shift towards addressing supply-side issues while promoting domestic demand [5][6]. - The five new "musts" introduced in the conference highlight the need for policy support and reform innovation, aiming for a more pronounced "cross-cycle" policy characteristic in 2026 [3][4]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The conference advocates for a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining a fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and increasing the scale of new debt to support economic stability [8][9]. - There is a focus on optimizing fiscal expenditure structure and addressing local fiscal difficulties to ensure basic public services [8][9]. - The need for fiscal expansion is underscored to counterbalance the impacts of declining real estate revenues and other economic pressures [9]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The conference calls for a continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, with an emphasis on using various policy tools to support economic growth and stabilize prices [10][11]. - The approach includes maintaining liquidity and guiding financial institutions to support key areas such as domestic demand and technological innovation [10][11]. Group 4: Domestic Demand and Market Development - The conference prioritizes domestic demand, aiming to build a strong domestic market through initiatives like a rural resident income increase plan [12][13]. - The strategy to enhance domestic demand is seen as crucial for maintaining economic resilience amid complex international conditions [12]. Group 5: Real Estate Market Stability - The conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market through targeted policies, including inventory reduction and supply optimization [14]. - There is an expectation for continued supportive measures for the real estate sector, particularly in major cities, while addressing the need for a new development model [14].