智通财经网·2025-12-12 07:35Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates significant changes in bank liabilities by 2025, with a shortening of deposit maturities and an accelerated repricing rhythm, which will support future interest margins. The expected decline in bank interest margins for 2026 is around 5 basis points, with downward pressure continuing to ease marginally, and some banks may see their margins stabilize [1]. Liability Side - The cost of liabilities is expected to improve significantly in 2025, with a 28 basis point decrease in the first half of the year compared to only a 4 basis point decrease in the same period last year. This improvement is primarily driven by a 19 basis point reduction in deposit costs and a 7 basis point reduction in interbank liabilities [1]. - The proportion of deposits maturing within 1-5 years has shown a downward turning point since 2024, decreasing by 1.5 percentage points to 22.6% by the end of Q2 2025. Banks in Ningbo, Chongqing, and Changshu have seen declines exceeding 10 percentage points [2]. - The high growth trend of time deposits has moderated, with the proportion of time deposits increasing by less than 1% in the first ten months of this year, significantly lower than in previous years. This trend is expected to lead to a more liquid deposit structure due to the ongoing diversification of residents' asset allocation needs [2]. Price Factors - Regulatory focus on maintaining reasonable levels of bank interest margins has increased, with monetary policy reports prioritizing the reduction of bank liability costs. The interest rate cuts in May saw a greater reduction in long-term deposit rates compared to loans, and this trend is expected to continue [3]. - The cost-saving effects of repricing long-term deposits after multiple rate cuts are anticipated to be significant, with potential maximum reductions of over 100 basis points for three-year deposits. Banks such as Chongqing, Bank of Communications, Jiangsu, and Nanjing may have substantial room for cost improvement [3]. Asset Side - The pressure on loan repricing is expected to ease, with a 10 basis point reduction in the five-year LPR in 2025, which is less than the 50 basis point reduction from the previous year. The narrowing gap between stock and new loan rates suggests limited future declines in loan rates [4]. - Following debt replacement, the statutory debt rates will be significantly lower than implicit debt rates, leading to a projected decline in asset yields, estimated to drag down net interest margins by about 4 basis points for listed banks [4]. - The rapid decline in interest rates for newly issued bonds has widened the gap with the yields on existing bank bonds. As banks reconfigure their bond holdings and sell existing bonds to realize gains, the investment yields on bank bonds are expected to face downward pressure, with an estimated drag of about 6 basis points on interest margins from bonds maturing within one year [4]. Net Interest Margin Outlook - The expected decline in net interest margins for 2026 is projected to be around 5 basis points, with asset yield declines estimated at 17 basis points. The contributions to this decline include 4 basis points from loan repricing, 4 basis points from debt replacement, and 6 basis points from bond maturity reconfiguration. On the liability side, the cost rate improvement is expected to be around 13 basis points, with deposit cost improvements contributing 17 basis points [5].