杨德龙：2026年资本市场的主要投资机会

Economic Transition - China's economy is transitioning from being driven by "exports + investment" to "consumption + technology," with consumption's contribution to GDP growth surpassing that of investment and exports in recent years [1][7] - The Central Economic Work Conference plans to implement "special actions to boost consumption" to stabilize domestic demand and promote moderate price increases [1][7] - The CPI in November increased by 0.7% year-on-year, indicating a shift from negative to positive, but still falling short of the 2% policy target, suggesting ongoing efforts are needed to expand domestic demand and bring inflation back to a reasonable range [1][7] Capital Market Dynamics - Since the policy shift on September 24 last year, the A-share market has established a new bull market, experiencing two clear upward phases, with the index rising approximately 1000 points shortly after the policy change [2][8] - The Shanghai Composite Index successfully broke through 4000 points, supported by significant gains in bank and technology stocks, reinforcing a "slow bull, long bull" market structure [2][8] - Despite the index nearing 4000 points, overall valuations remain low, with the CSI 300's price-to-earnings ratio around 14 times, below historical averages [2][8] Sectoral Growth Potential - Future growth potential is concentrated in three main sectors: technology, new energy, and consumption, with expectations for new quality companies to emerge in these areas [3][9] - The technology sector is expected to benefit directly from economic transformation, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing advancements in chips, artificial intelligence, and smart manufacturing [3][10] - The new energy sector, after adjustments, is anticipated to show fundamental improvements, particularly in solid-state batteries, photovoltaics, and wind power by 2026 [3][10] Asset Allocation Shift - There is a structural opportunity arising from a shift in household savings from real estate to capital markets, with the proportion of household assets in real estate decreasing from about 70% to approximately 50% [4][11] - The allocation of household assets in stocks and funds has risen to about 15%, still below the over 50% level seen in the U.S., indicating ongoing optimization of asset allocation in China [5][11] - This shift is expected to enhance the wealth effect from capital market gains, allowing more investors to hold quality stocks or funds, thereby supporting consumption growth [5][11]