张忆东：中国股市机遇堪比1998年之后的房地产，建议投资者布局两条主线，耐心做多

Group 1 - The current era of "great power competition" shapes the core logic of asset allocation, with the U.S. relying on debt expansion to drive market prosperity, while facing significant repayment pressures due to high federal debt levels exceeding 120% of GDP [1][3] - The U.S. economy is increasingly dependent on technology, particularly AI, which has contributed over 40% to actual GDP growth, indicating a potential "rigid bubble" in the current AI technology wave [1][7] - The U.S. stock market's long-term bull run is primarily driven by the AI wave, supported by government fiscal and monetary expansion, which in turn sustains consumer spending that constitutes over 70% of U.S. GDP [1][5][7] Group 2 - The U.S. faces structural economic challenges, including a hollowed-out manufacturing sector, with manufacturing jobs dropping from over 30% in the 1940s to just 8% today, indicating a lack of sufficient talent reserves [4][5] - The AI technology wave is seen as a potential "rigid bubble," with structural valuation risks and financial vulnerabilities emerging, similar to past tech bubbles [8][9] - The Chinese economy is transitioning from a debt-driven growth model to a high-quality development model, with significant opportunities arising as the most painful phase of the old energy transition appears to be over [10][12] Group 3 - The Chinese stock market is entering a historical opportunity phase, focusing on high-quality development and asset revitalization, which will be crucial for achieving the goal of becoming a modern socialist country by the mid-21st century [10][14] - The central government's balance sheet is relatively healthy, with a national debt of approximately 34.5 trillion RMB, only about 26% of GDP, compared to the U.S. [12] - The shift from land finance to equity finance is becoming a consensus among local governments, with a focus on revitalizing assets through the stock market [16] Group 4 - The capital market is expected to play a pivotal role in China's economic transformation, similar to the role of real estate in the past two decades, with a focus on asset revitalization and cash flow improvement [14][22] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to be a significant driver for the Chinese economy, emphasizing the modernization of the industrial system and the promotion of emerging industries [26][28] - The Chinese stock market is projected to attract more domestic and foreign capital, with a notable shift in wealth allocation towards equities, particularly in technology and new consumption sectors [24][30]