中加基金固收周报|市场情绪偏低，聚焦科技

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance last week with declining trading volume [1][7] - The market experienced a rebound amidst low liquidity and weak technical indicators, although financing data showed improvement [16] Macroeconomic Analysis - The Bank of Japan's Governor hinted at a possible interest rate hike later this month, signaling a hawkish stance [5][14] - Japan's economy shows signs of recovery with rising wages, while a weak yen has led to imported inflation pressures [5][14] - International markets have begun pricing in potential liquidity tightening following the Bank of Japan's statements, although the impact remains limited [5][14] Short-term Outlook - As year-end approaches, institutional fund activity is low, leading to reduced market liquidity and increased pricing power for quantitative funds [8][17] - The technology growth sector is particularly sensitive to marginal catalysts, with expectations for significant policy outcomes from upcoming meetings [8][17] - A potential influx of capital estimated in the hundreds of billions is anticipated to support a spring market rally [8][17] Mid-term Perspective - The technology growth sector remains a favored direction, with no fundamental changes in the economic backdrop or technology narrative [8][18] - Defensive dividend sectors are recommended for continued allocation, with increased insurance capital and stable economic expectations providing support [10][19] Long-term View - The long-term dynamics of the U.S.-China rivalry are becoming clearer, with increasing skepticism about U.S. governance and institutional credibility [9][18] - The Chinese equity market may benefit from sustained foreign capital inflows, supported by a favorable exchange rate for the yuan against the dollar [9][18] - The trend towards long-term capital from public offerings and insurance funds is expected to strengthen, with significant stock holdings by major insurance companies [9][18] Industry Insights - For defensive dividend sectors, maintaining allocation ratios is advised, with a focus on catalysts in certain industries and stable attributes in Hong Kong stocks [10][19] - In aggressive sectors, technology remains a key focus, particularly in AI and related fields, with attention to short-term catalysts in domestic computing and commercial aerospace [10][19] - The market may see opportunities in undervalued domestic demand sectors and high-growth areas, contingent on strong catalysts [10][19]