美联储如期降息25bp，发布超预期资产购买计划

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, which exceeded market expectations for a "hawkish cut" despite a hawkish dot plot. Powell's dovish remarks and an unexpected asset purchase plan led to a rally in both stocks and bonds [1][4][9]. Interest Rates - Powell indicated that a rate hike is not a baseline assumption for anyone at the moment [2][10]. - The median dot plot suggests a hawkish rate cut path, with only one cut expected in 2026, and a more dispersed distribution indicating greater dissent among committee members [3][11]. Economic Outlook - The government shutdown may pressure economic activity in the current quarter, but higher growth is expected in the next quarter. Consumer spending appears robust, while business fixed investment continues to expand. However, the real estate sector remains weak [2][10]. - Inflation in the service sector is declining, but this is offset by rising commodity prices concentrated in tariff-related areas. If tariffs do not increase further, commodity inflation may peak in Q1 of next year [6][12]. Asset Purchase Plan - The Fed will initiate short-term U.S. Treasury purchases to maintain sufficient reserve levels, starting at approximately $40 billion in the first month, potentially remaining high for several months [6][12]. Market Reactions - The market interpreted the FOMC meeting as less hawkish than expected, leading to a "reversal of expectations" with stocks, bonds, and commodities rising, while the dollar index fell. The probability of a rate cut in January 2026 increased from 21% to 22%, with a 78% probability for April [4][13]. - The bond market is shifting focus to the new chair's appointment, with expectations of only one rate cut in the first half of next year, but a more dovish stance may return after the new chair is nominated [5][14]. Stock Market Outlook - Macro liquidity is expanding, and the fundamentals of stocks remain solid, leading to a cautiously optimistic outlook for U.S. equities. The new asset purchase plan is expected to enhance liquidity, benefiting risk assets [7][15]. - Key risks include a potential hawkish shift from the Fed early next year and liquidity fluctuations due to rate hikes from the ECB and BoJ [15].