经济学家与施纳贝尔看法一致：欧洲央行下一步将是加息

Group 1 - Economists predict that the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to raise interest rates, aligning with the views of influential committee member Isabel Schnabel, as inflation stabilizes around 2% [1][5] - A survey indicates that over 60% of respondents believe officials are more likely to increase rather than decrease borrowing costs, a significant shift from October when only one-third held this view [1] - Analysts are revising their forecasts due to the resilience of the Eurozone economy amid global trade tensions and geopolitical turmoil, with expectations for the first rate hike potentially occurring in the second half of 2027 [5][8] Group 2 - The ECB's current interest rates are viewed as appropriate, with most committee members stating that rates are at a "suitable level" [5] - Predictions suggest that the ECB will raise rates by 25 basis points in September and December 2027, although tighter financing conditions could pose headwinds to the economy [5][11] - Concerns remain regarding inflation in 2027, particularly with the delayed implementation of a new carbon pricing system in the EU, although most economists expect the ECB's inflation forecast for that year to remain at 1.9% [8][10] Group 3 - Approximately 45% of survey respondents believe that economic growth is primarily constrained by structural forces beyond the ECB's control, such as increased competition from China and high energy costs [14] - The ECB is expected to maintain its current stance until at least 2027, as monetary policy alone cannot address structural growth issues [14] - The impact of U.S. policies, both monetary and trade-related, is viewed as a significant threat to the Eurozone economy, alongside ongoing concerns regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [11][14]