中加基金权益周报|债市情绪偏弱，长债对利空敏感性提高

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 223 billion, 108.7 billion, and 99 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of -33.8 billion, 60.5 billion, and -106.5 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance scale of 134.6 billion, with a net financing amount of 71.4 billion. Non-financial credit bonds had an issuance scale of 220.7 billion, with a net financing amount of 61 billion [1] - Two new convertible bonds were issued, with an expected financing scale of 270 million [1] Secondary Market Review - Long-term bonds continue to face pressure, leading to another adjustment in the bond market. Key influencing factors include the central bank's November government bond trading volume, the Vanke incident, and the political bureau meeting [2] Liquidity Tracking - At the beginning of December, the funding environment is seasonally loose. The final R001 and R007 rates decreased by 5.3 basis points and 2.6 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [3] Policy and Fundamentals - He Lifeng held a video call with the U.S. Treasury Secretary and Trade Representative to promote stable and positive Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations. High-frequency data shows a mixed performance on the production side, weak demand in real estate exports, and a mixed price trend with most production material prices rebounding [4] Overseas Market - U.S. employment data showed mixed results, while expectations for interest rate hikes in Japan increased, leading to a decline in U.S. long-term bonds. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond closed at 4.14%, up 12 basis points from the previous week [5] Equity Market - Last week, A-shares were positively influenced by the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, with prices of silver, copper, and aluminum rising, resulting in a notable performance in the non-ferrous sector with a weekly increase of 5.35%. The average daily trading volume decreased to 1.70 trillion, down 40.745 billion from the previous week. As of December 4, 2025, the total financing balance across A-shares was 24,664.78 billion, an increase of 11.493 billion from November 27 [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The bond market's oscillating pattern remains unbroken, but short-term pressure on long-term bonds continues. On one hand, the basic economic outlook for 2026 suggests marginal stabilization, but the upward slope is not steep. Before a clear recovery in fundamentals, the central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with a necessity for further cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates. The market's short-term expectations for monetary policy are relatively pessimistic [7] - On the other hand, the trend of deposit liquidity has increased the instability of banks' liabilities but has also effectively reduced their costs. After the disturbances from deposit disintermediation dissipate, the cost-effectiveness of banks in bond allocation is expected to rise again. Additionally, the central bank's resumption of government bond trading serves dual purposes of fiscal and monetary coordination and yield curve adjustment, indicating that bond yields still have an upper limit [7] - The traditional bond market configuration in mid to late December is still anticipated. The convertible bond index is experiencing high-level fluctuations, with recent movements in convertible bond funding being a major focus. The long-term logic of convertible bonds remains intact, with no reversal in supply-demand relationships and policy support for economic stability not fully dissipated [7]