锂市拐点已至？储能需求狂飙，供应过剩时代恐在2026年彻底终结

Core Insights - The overseas lithium bulls are betting that energy storage systems will become a significant pillar of demand for lithium, potentially leading the market back to balance after years of oversupply [1] Group 1: Lithium Demand Trends - Analysts predict that demand for lithium from energy storage systems will outpace that from electric vehicles by 2026, with major firms like Citigroup, UBS, and Bernstein forecasting a supply shortage in the global lithium market next year [2] - The growth in energy storage demand is expected to be the "largest variable" affecting lithium demand as electric vehicle adoption matures [2] - The lithium market has faced oversupply issues in the past three years due to lower-than-expected electric vehicle demand and increased mining capacity [2] Group 2: Energy Storage as a Key Driver - The construction costs of utility-scale batteries have been decreasing, driven by economic benefits and policy requirements to integrate more clean energy, thus promoting large-scale development in the energy storage sector [3] - Data centers requiring stable power supply are also contributing to the demand for lithium, with China expected to achieve a cumulative energy storage capacity of 180 GW by 2027 [4] - Demand for lithium in the energy storage sector is projected to grow by 55% next year, significantly outpacing the 19% growth expected in the electric vehicle sector [4] Group 3: Industry Optimism and Caution - Executives from Chinese lithium production companies express optimism about the market, with expectations that global lithium demand will reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2026, nearing supply-demand balance [7] - Analysts from Bernstein are confident that production cuts and strong demand will lead to a tightening lithium market from 2026 to 2027, marking a bottoming out of the market this year [7] - However, some industry observers remain cautious, predicting that lithium supply growth will still exceed demand growth next year, highlighting a potential disconnect between battery production and installation rates [7]