【兴期研究·深度报告】2026年原油市场或迎转折

Core Viewpoint - 2026 is expected to be a turning point for the crude oil market, with global supply-demand surplus pressure peaking in Q1, followed by a gradual easing of supply pressure and potential upward price movement due to macroeconomic benefits such as interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Supply-Demand Balance Forecast - The global crude oil market is currently in a phase of oversupply, primarily due to OPEC+ rapidly restoring production cuts from 2022, leading to supply growth outpacing demand [4][38]. - The surplus pressure is projected to peak in Q1 2026, after which the degree of oversupply is expected to gradually ease [4][38]. Supply Side Analysis - OPEC's capacity for further production increases is limited, with a significant recovery already achieved in 2025 [7][17]. - U.S. shale oil production is anticipated to grow weakly due to rising costs and a decrease in capital expenditure, with the average cost of new shale wells projected to be above $60 to $70 per barrel [24][38]. - Non-OPEC supply growth is also expected to slow, with EIA forecasting a decline in growth rates from 4.66% in 2025 to 1.84% in 2026 [29][38]. Demand Side Analysis - Overall demand for crude oil is expected to maintain low but steady growth, primarily driven by developing countries, with a projected increase of 1.04 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.07 million barrels per day in 2026 [39][40]. - China's strategic stockpiling is likely to continue, contributing to demand stability [44][46]. - U.S. demand growth is expected to be modest, with strategic reserves at historically low levels, indicating a persistent need for replenishment [46][49]. Macroeconomic Environment - The Federal Reserve is expected to enter a rate-cutting cycle, which historically supports commodity prices, including crude oil [49][54]. - The anticipated decline in the federal funds target rate could enhance demand expectations for oil priced in dollars [54][59]. Strategic Recommendations - As the surplus pressure peaks in early 2026, there may be opportunities to gradually position for long-term bullish strategies, particularly when prices are depressed due to temporary oversupply [3][59]. - Close monitoring of OPEC+ policies, geopolitical risks, and inventory dynamics in the U.S. and China is advised [3][59].