【兴期研究·谈硅说锂】碳酸锂2026年供需演变的定性分析及估算

Core Viewpoint - Silicon and lithium are essential materials in the new energy revolution, driving the green and low-carbon transition of the energy structure and supporting the achievement of carbon neutrality goals [1] Demand Overview - In 2026, lithium salt consumption is expected to increase by over 350,000 tons LCE, driven by the demand from electric vehicles and energy storage, while supply is projected to grow by approximately 300,000 tons LCE, leading to a supply-demand gap [2] - Domestic new energy vehicle sales are projected to grow by 18% in 2026, with global sales increasing by 15% [3][4] - From January to October 2025, domestic new energy vehicle sales reached 12.911 million units, a year-on-year increase of 32.4%, with a retail market penetration rate exceeding 57% since September [3] - The global perspective shows that the U.S. electric vehicle market faces challenges after federal subsidies end in Q3 2025, while Europe is more proactive with carbon emission regulations and consumer subsidies [3] Energy Storage Cell Growth - Energy storage cell increments are estimated at 180 GWh for 2025 and 220 GWh for 2026, with China leading in new energy storage installations [8] - By mid-2025, China's new energy storage capacity reached 94.9 GW, with a total capacity of 222.0 GWh [8] Supply Overview - In 2026, global lithium salt supply is expected to increase by over 300,000 tons LCE, with domestic production contributing significantly [11][14] - Domestic lithium carbonate production in 2025 is projected to reach 964,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 42.7% [11] - Domestic mining supply is expected to increase by 130,000 tons LCE, with significant contributions from various lithium resource projects [17][19] Price Outlook - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate between 90,000 and 130,000 yuan per ton in 2026, with a central price around 100,000 yuan per ton [25]