泓德基金：坚持内需主导，关注“两新”政策后续

Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing from December 10 to 11 acknowledged the achievements of the past year and the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, proposing five essential points for economic work under new circumstances, which will serve as the ideological foundation for future policies [1][3] Group 1: Economic Policy Direction - The current economic challenges are characterized as developmental and transitional issues, leading to a policy approach that maintains strategic stability, focusing more on support rather than drastic measures [1][3] - Fiscal policy language has become more moderate, emphasizing reform, while monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, with a new focus on reasonable price recovery. The expression regarding reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts has shifted from "timely" to "flexibly and efficiently utilizing various policy tools," highlighting the importance of marginal policy effects [1][3] Group 2: Demand and Supply Side Focus - The conference emphasizes a demand-driven approach, with a primary focus on domestic demand and the construction of a robust domestic market. There is a commitment to expand the supply of quality goods and services, along with an optimization of the "two new" policy implementation, which will involve monitoring the scale and scope of subsidies [2][4] - In terms of investment, the conference aims to stabilize and reverse the downward trend, with future policies likely to balance investment stabilization and "anti-involution" efforts structurally [2][4] - The real estate sector is characterized by a stabilizing approach, with specific measures including controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and enhancing supply quality, reflecting a mindset focused on revitalizing existing assets and policy support [2][4] Group 3: Innovation and Reform - The conference prioritizes innovation-driven growth and the cultivation of new momentum as the second key focus for the coming year, shifting from merely expanding industries to emphasizing institutional development [2][4] - Regarding reforms, the conference announced plans to establish a national unified market construction regulation and to address "involutionary" competition more concretely than previous statements, indicating a stronger commitment to regulating disorderly competition among enterprises [2][4] Group 4: Risk Management - The content related to risk prevention has been deprioritized, suggesting that the most urgent phase of systemic risk prevention may have passed. However, risk management remains a bottom line, with an emphasis on urging local governments to actively manage their debts [5]