Jin Rong Jie·2025-12-12 10:03Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment sector in A-shares has experienced a strong short-term rally, driven by multiple favorable factors including surging AI computing demand, increased policy support, and accelerated domestic substitution [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The core stock in the sector, Tuojing Technology, saw a remarkable increase of over 8% due to strong capital support [1] - Other companies such as Zhongke Feimiao, Jingyi Equipment, Xinyuan Micro, and Zhongwei Company also experienced significant gains, amplifying the sector's profitability [1] Group 2: Policy Support - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released new measures aimed at promoting high-quality development in the semiconductor industry, targeting a domestic equipment localization rate of over 70% by 2025 [1] - A 100 billion yuan industry investment fund will be established, and companies investing over 15% of their revenue in R&D will receive tax incentives [1] - For instance, Zhongwei Company’s R&D expenditure accounted for 18% in 2023, potentially leading to a tax reduction of approximately 1.5 billion yuan by 2025, enhancing corporate profits [1] Group 3: Industry Growth Drivers - AI is driving unprecedented growth in the semiconductor market, with expectations of continuous growth for six years, breaking traditional cyclical patterns [2] - Data center servers have become the core revenue driver for semiconductors, leading to a surge in demand for GPUs and HBM chips, which in turn boosts the demand for etching and thin-film deposition equipment [2] - The global semiconductor revenue is projected to exceed 200 billion dollars in a single quarter for the first time by Q3 2025, reflecting high industry prosperity [2] Group 4: Equipment Demand Trends - UBS forecasts that the DRAM supply shortage will persist until Q1 2027, with DDR memory demand expected to grow by 20.7%, significantly outpacing supply growth [2] - The transition to 3D storage technology is driving an upgrade in equipment demand, with the number of layers in 3D NAND stacking approaching a thousand, leading to increased usage of etching equipment [2] - ALD and CVD processes are becoming mainstream, benefiting equipment companies like Zhongwei Company and Tuojing Technology [2] Group 5: Benefiting Sectors - The semiconductor materials sector is expected to benefit as equipment capacity expansion directly drives upstream material demand [3] - The localization of core components in semiconductor equipment is a key focus of policy support, with companies capable of technological breakthroughs set to gain significantly [3] - The advanced packaging equipment sector is also poised for growth, driven by AI chip technology iterations, with breakthroughs in 2.5D/3D advanced packaging expected in the second half of 2025 [3] - Zhongwei Company has made comprehensive layouts in advanced packaging, launching CCP etching and TSV deep silicon via hole equipment, which will further increase demand for advanced packaging equipment [3]