OEXN:黄金多头格局加速扩散

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains its gold price target at $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, indicating an overall upward risk bias due to low gold holdings in global asset allocation and increasing diversification demand [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The demand for gold is being driven by structural central bank purchases, which are seen as the primary force influencing gold prices [2][5]. - Following a reserve freeze event in 2022, emerging market reserve managers have recognized the need to increase gold allocations for asset security, leading to a more stable underlying demand for gold [2][5]. - A potential interest rate cut cycle is expected to attract more ETF inflows into gold, with analysts predicting a possible 75 basis points of rate cuts ahead [2][5]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Recent institutional demand for increased gold allocation is attributed to low positioning and a strengthening diversification trend [1][5]. - Even minor retail diversification actions could provide additional momentum for gold price expectations, given the relatively small size of the gold market [1][5]. - The total value of gold ETFs is approximately one-seventieth of the U.S. Treasury market, meaning that small inflows can significantly impact price changes [1][5]. Group 3: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold forecasts, emphasizing that Western ETF inflows and ongoing central bank purchases are key factors behind this upward revision [6]. - Central bank gold purchases are expected to reach 80 tons in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026, with Western ETF holdings likely to continue rising during the interest rate cut cycle [6]. - Gold has recorded nearly a 60% increase this year, driven by strong central bank buying, increased ETF demand, and heightened investor hedging against macro uncertainties [3][6].