China’s Oil Pumping Power Breaks All Records

Core Insights - China's domestic crude oil production is experiencing significant growth, with national output projected to rise from 3.8 million b/d in 2020 to an average of 4.3 million b/d in 2025, marking a roughly 12% increase driven by accelerated drilling and restructuring of the upstream sector [5][11] - The restructuring of China's upstream began in 2020, transitioning to a market-oriented bidding framework for mining and hydrocarbon rights, allowing private companies to participate alongside state-owned enterprises [4] Group 1: Company Performance - CNOOC is leading in output growth, increasing production from 690,000 b/d in 2020 to about 900,000 b/d by 2025, supported by extensive offshore acreage [1] - PetroChina is the largest oil producer, averaging 2.5 million b/d in 2025, with a significant focus on unconventional exploration across various basins [2] - Sinopec is also expanding its production, with a target of 600,000 b/d in 2025, maintaining a strong presence in both onshore and offshore operations [1][2] Group 2: Regional Developments - Tianjin has seen the largest regional output increase, rising from 632,000 b/d in 2020 to 785,000 b/d in 2025, while Xinjiang's production increased from 571,000 to 649,000 b/d [3] - Heilongjiang's output has slightly decreased from 604,000 to 579,000 b/d, indicating challenges in maintaining production levels in mature fields [3] Group 3: Exploration and Discoveries - CNOOC's Bozhong 26-6 discovery in 2023 is notable for its rapid transition from discovery to production, estimated at 200 million m³ of oil and gas [6] - PetroChina confirmed 1.15 billion barrels of shale oil in place in the Gulong zone, with expected peak production of 130,000–140,000 b/d [6] - Sinopec's Qiluye-1 well in the Sichuan Basin has tested commercially viable shale oil and gas, indicating significant potential in Southwest China [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Despite increased domestic production, China's crude imports have remained steady at 10.5 million b/d since 2023, covering around 70–75% of total consumption [8][9] - The refining system in China is designed to process specific imported crude grades, ensuring continued reliance on foreign oil despite domestic production increases [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - China is expected to enter 2026 with a stronger domestic production base and continued momentum in unconventional and offshore exploration [10] - CNOOC is projected to add another 40,000 b/d in 2026, while PetroChina faces challenges as its resource base has shrunk by a net 200 million barrels in the past three years [10] - The trajectory of China's oil production remains upward, with potential for further increases as companies pursue ambitious drilling targets [11]