The Fed is expected to cut interest rates today. Here's why bond yields are moving in the opposite direction.

Group 1 - The market anticipates a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, yet US government bond yields are rising, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by about 20 basis points to around 4.20% [1][9] - There is a disconnect between long-term bond yields and the Fed's short-term borrowing rate, which is unusual given the expectation of continued rate decreases into 2026 [2] - Inflation concerns are central to bond investors, as recent months have seen a resurgence in inflation despite a previous peak of around 9% in summer 2022 [4][5] Group 2 - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair raises concerns that aggressive rate cuts could exacerbate inflation, influencing market expectations [6][7] - The bond market reflects worries about future inflation, with rising yields indicating skepticism about the Fed's ability to manage inflation effectively under new leadership [9][10] - Questions arise regarding the implications of increased Treasury issuance and whether new Fed leadership might alter the inflation target, potentially raising it from 2% to 4% [10]