The Trade Desk is Down 67% This Year: Is the Stock Still a Buy?

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk has experienced a significant stock decline of approximately 67% year-to-date, raising questions about its growth potential and market position [1][10]. Financial Performance - The Trade Desk reported revenue of US$739 million for the third quarter, marking an 18% year-over-year increase [2]. - Excluding political ad spending from the previous year, underlying growth accelerated to 22%, up from 19% in the prior quarter, indicating a solid financial foundation [3]. Competitive Landscape - Investor concerns are heightened due to competition from Amazon, whose advertising division grew over 23% year-on-year and generated nearly 24 times the revenue of The Trade Desk [5]. - CEO Jeff Green emphasized that Amazon's revenue primarily comes from sponsored listings, which differ from The Trade Desk's focus on open internet programmatic advertising [5][6]. Internal Developments - The Trade Desk has undergone significant internal restructuring, including the hiring of a new COO, CFO, and Chief Revenue Officer, the latter coming from Google, signaling a long-term strategic vision [7][8]. - The company's AI-driven platform, Kokai, has shown strong results, leading to improved client performance metrics such as a 26% better cost per acquisition and a 94% improvement in click-through rates [8][14]. Business Strategy - Joint Business Plans (JBPs) now account for approximately half of The Trade Desk's revenue and are growing faster than the overall business, with over 180 active JBPs [9]. - The current stock price around US$39 reflects a shift from hypergrowth expectations to a focus on profitability and strong cash flow, positioning the company for future growth despite competitive pressures [10][11].