华福证券任志强：迈向“十五五” 稳中求进、新质领航

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 outlines a clear development blueprint for the "14th Five-Year Plan" by systematically proposing eight key areas of focus, addressing both the achievements and challenges facing the economy, particularly the "strong supply but weak demand" issue [1][2]. Group 1: Key Tasks - The eight key tasks identified in the conference serve as a construction blueprint for economic work in 2026, with "domestic demand as the main driver" and "innovation-driven" being the top two priorities [2]. - Task one, "insist on domestic demand as the main driver," directly addresses the domestic supply-demand imbalance, while task two, "insist on innovation-driven," is essential for building long-term competitive advantages [2]. - Task three, "reform breakthroughs," and task eight, "safeguarding the bottom line," reflect a strategy to mitigate risks during development [2]. - Task four emphasizes "institutional opening-up" and the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative, while task six promotes the construction of a new energy system and green transformation under the "dual carbon" initiative [2]. - Task seven focuses on "people's livelihood," with specific deployments in employment, education, healthcare, and support for childbirth, which will stimulate long-term sectors such as the silver economy and vocational education [2]. Group 2: Policy Signals - The core message from the conference indicates that macroeconomic policies will maintain continuity and coordination to ensure a stable economic start [2]. - The emphasis on "developing new quality productive forces according to local conditions" has been elevated to an unprecedented strategic level, becoming a key engine for optimizing economic structure and upgrading industries [2].