下周欧洲央行会议在即 与美联储政策分歧料推高欧元

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that options traders expect the euro's upward momentum to gain new strength next week due to the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision, which is anticipated to highlight the policy divergence with the Federal Reserve [1] - According to the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), the most active strike price this month is at 1.18 USD per euro, with a significant portion of the underlying value concentrated in contracts expiring around the ECB's decision window on December 18-19 [1] - The euro is hovering near a two-month high following the Federal Reserve's third consecutive rate cut and hawkish comments from ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, with the options sentiment for the ECB's December decision being the most bullish in three months [1] Group 2 - The cost of buying volatility ahead of the decision is the highest in three months, attributed to Schnabel's remarks, and Morgan Stanley strategists expect the euro to rise to 1.30 USD by the second quarter of 2026, even if the ECB does not raise rates next year [4] - Hedge funds are identified as the main drivers of the bullish price action for the euro this week, actively purchasing both vanilla and exotic options that will profit from a strengthening euro [4]