Will Fed’s Latest Rate Cut Be Powell’s Last?

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the key overnight borrowing rate to 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations, but future rate cuts may be limited due to inflation concerns [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The FOMC's decision to cut rates was a 9-3 vote, indicating a division among members regarding the need for further cuts to support the labor market versus concerns about inflation [2] - The Fed's preferred inflation gauge is currently at 2.8%, above the 2% target, with expectations to decrease to approximately 2.4% by the end of 2026 [2] - The FOMC's dot plot suggests only one rate cut is anticipated in 2026, indicating a higher threshold for future cuts [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Rate-sensitive investments saw a rally, with the small-cap Russell 2000 index increasing by 1.3% and the State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF rising by 3% [5] - Historical data indicates that stocks perform well during non-recession periods when the Fed cuts rates, averaging a 15% annualized return since 1970 [5] - Some analysts caution that optimism regarding the pace of future rate cuts may be overstated, suggesting that the anticipated timeline for lower interest rates could be longer than expected [5]