Stocks Could See Fast 20% Drop If Recession Hits in 2026, Stifel Says

If all remains well with the US economy in 2026, investment bank Stifel sees 9% upside ahead for the S&P 500. However, if a recession materializes, investors should be prepared for a swift 20% drop in the benchmark index, the bank said in a client note on Thursday."Fed is easing, but recession risk (with a fast -20% S&P 500 decline) is not trivial," Barry Bannister, Stifel's chief US equity strategist, said. Recession is not Stifel's — nor any major bank's — base case scenario for next year. The Federal ...