每日机构分析：12月12日

Group 1 - Societe Generale indicates that Japan's neutral interest rate may slightly rise, but a significant increase in the lower bound of the policy range is unlikely [1] - Morgan Stanley suggests that if the European Central Bank maintains interest rates, the euro may reach 1.30 against the dollar by Q2 2026 [1] - Deutsche Bank warns that the UK economy may face its first quarterly contraction since 2023 [1] Group 2 - Macquarie analysts note that rising interest rates in Australia are significantly adjusting overnight cash rates and swap pricing, providing upward space for banks' net interest margins, although increased competition may offset some benefits [2] - HSBC economists expect the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate between 3.50% and 3.75% in 2026 and 2027, supported by fiscal measures and a cooling labor market [2] - Howard Marks from Oaktree Capital warns that current Fed rates are low enough, and further cuts would encourage excessive risk-taking in the market [2] Group 3 - UBS Asset Management analysts predict that dovish Fed policies combined with Trump’s stimulus measures may reignite inflation, leading the market to price in rate hikes by the end of 2026 [3] - Morgan Stanley strategists state that if the ECB keeps rates unchanged in 2026, the euro could rise to 1.30 against the dollar, the highest since 2014 [3] - Quilter investment strategists highlight that the UK’s GDP contracted by 0.1% in October, indicating economic fragility, contrasting with overall upward growth expectations in Europe [3] Group 4 - JPMorgan Asset Management strategists emphasize that AI-related capital expenditures are primarily supported by companies' own cash, indicating real demand and profit foundations, unlike the internet bubble [4]