5 Momentum ETFs With More Room to Run in 2026

Group 1: Market Overview - Wall Street is experiencing volatility due to overvaluation concerns in AI stocks and signs of a weakening U.S. labor market, with consumer sentiment remaining muted [1] - U.S. retail sales increased by only 0.2% in September 2025, the smallest rise in four months and below the forecast of 0.4%, indicating fragile consumer spending behavior [1] Group 2: AI Sector Insights - Despite economic uncertainty, the AI boom is expected to continue, supported by strong earnings growth driven by a significant AI investment cycle [2] - Wedbush analyst Dan Ives believes the tech market is not in a bubble but is in the early stages of an 8-10 year AI buildout, predicting a continuation of the tech bull market for at least two more years [3] Group 3: S&P 500 Forecasts - Oppenheimer has set a bullish target for the S&P 500 at 8100 for the end of 2026, which would represent a 16% gain if achieved [4] - Deutsche Bank anticipates "mid-teens returns" for the S&P 500 next year, supported by ongoing investment flows, strong buybacks, and persistent earnings strength [5] Group 4: Earnings and Economic Projections - Total earnings for the S&P 500 are projected to rise by 11% in 2025 and 11.8% in 2026, with revenue growth forecasted at 5.2% for 2025 and 6.7% for 2026 [7] - The Federal Reserve has revised its GDP growth projections for 2026 to 2.3%, up from 1.8%, while maintaining the unemployment rate at 4.4% for 2026 [8] Group 5: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Fed's outlook for 2026 includes a projection of one rate cut, consistent with previous forecasts, following three rate cuts in 2025 totaling 0.75 percentage points [10] - The Fed Funds rate is projected to remain at 3.4% for 2026, with potential for more cuts if the labor market improves and inflation declines [11] Group 6: Investment Strategies - Momentum investing is suggested as a viable strategy despite economic strains, with a focus on high-momentum ETFs such as iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) [6][12] - Notable high-momentum ETFs include VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) up 13.2%, iShares Silver Trust (SLV) up 19.3%, and State Street SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) up 8.3% over the past month [12]