广发基金投顾团队：“反内卷”仍是主线 三大方向或迎机遇

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of addressing "involution" competition and identified key sectors such as photovoltaic, lithium battery, and coal industries that have shown significant improvement, suggesting investment opportunities based on policy support and market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Since July, all "anti-involution" themed industries have achieved positive returns, with lithium batteries and photovoltaics performing the best due to favorable policies and improved demand, particularly in domestic and international energy storage [1]. - The steel industry, while initially strong due to policy support, has seen a decline in performance as real estate investment and demand have decreased, leading to a significant drop in the past month [1]. - Sectors like express delivery and live pig farming have shown weaker performance, with limited gains since July and negative fluctuations recently [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - Industrial product prices have not uniformly increased since July; instead, there has been a divergence, with photovoltaic materials, lithium carbonate, and thermal coal showing relative strength, while prices for pork and cement have fallen below July levels due to weak demand [2]. Group 3: Future Investment Opportunities - The "anti-involution" theme is expected to be a long-term market focus, with investment opportunities identified based on three key factors: 1. Current policy support levels, with photovoltaic and coal industries receiving the most robust backing [2]. 2. Market structure, where industries with lower private capacity and higher concentration are better positioned for supply-side control [3]. 3. Demand side dynamics, particularly in the lithium battery sector benefiting from rising energy storage needs and seasonal demand increases for coal during winter [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The "anti-involution" trend is anticipated to remain a central market theme, with optimistic expectations for sectors like lithium batteries, coal, and photovoltaics, which are supported by both policy and demand [3].