英国10月经济再度萎缩 预算案增税前景加剧担忧

Core Viewpoint - The UK economy has experienced a disappointing contraction for the fourth consecutive month in October, with GDP declining by 0.1%, as economic activity weakened ahead of the Autumn Budget announcement by Chancellor Rachel Reeves [1][5]. Economic Performance - The Office for National Statistics reported a 0.1% decline in GDP for October, following a similar decline in the previous month, while economists had anticipated a growth of 0.1% [1][5]. - The services sector fell by 0.3%, and the construction sector decreased by 0.6%, although this was partially offset by a 1.1% rebound in industrial production [1][5]. Market Reactions - Following the GDP data release, the British pound slightly weakened against the US dollar, dropping 0.1% to 1.3381, with traders increasing bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England next year [1][5]. Future Outlook - The GDP data serves as a precursor to upcoming employment and inflation figures, which will inform the Bank of England's final meeting of the year on December 18 [1][5]. - The report indicates that the UK economy remains sluggish entering the last quarter, struggling to regain the growth momentum seen in the first half of the year, when it outperformed other G7 countries [1][5]. Recent Trends - Over the past seven months, the UK GDP has recorded growth only once [3][7]. - Economic activity in November may be constrained due to ongoing budget uncertainties, with expectations of flat GDP growth for the last quarter of the year [4][8]. Consumer Behavior - Speculation about potential tax increases has placed significant pressure on households, which account for approximately 60% of the economy, leading to reduced consumer spending ahead of the budget announcement [4][8]. - Despite not raising income tax rates, the Chancellor's decision to extend the freeze on tax thresholds, combined with rising unemployment and weakening real wage growth, may lead consumers to remain cautious in the coming months [4][8].