Hoping for lower mortgage rates? Don't hold your breath

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut does not directly lead to a decrease in mortgage rates, which are more closely aligned with the long-term 10-year Treasury yield rather than the federal funds rate [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's third consecutive rate cut in 2025 has lowered the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%, primarily due to a weakening jobs market [2]. - The Fed has indicated that further rate cuts are on hold, projecting only one quarter-percentage-point cut in 2026 as it aims to control inflation and maximize employment [2]. Group 2: Mortgage Rate Trends - Following the Fed's rate cut, the national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased to 6.3% on Wednesday, down from 6.35% on Tuesday, and further fell to 6.26% on Thursday [3]. - Despite the Fed's rate cuts, current mortgage rates have increased from 6.13% in late October [3]. Group 3: Economic Context - The Trump administration's trade war and tariffs are expected to slow economic growth and maintain elevated inflation levels, with tariffs resulting in an average tax increase of $1,100 per household in 2025 and $1,400 in 2026 [5]. - Experts caution that lowering the federal funds rate could lead to negative economic consequences, such as higher unemployment and job losses, which may deter consumers from committing to large financial decisions like mortgages [6]. Group 4: Factors Influencing Mortgage Rates - Mortgage rates are influenced by various economic factors, including the jobs market, inflation, geopolitical events, lender capacity, and borrower demand, rather than solely by the Fed's control over short-term interest rates [7].