【信达能源】煤炭2026年度策略：煤炭的“韧”与“实”

Group 1 - The coal supply has entered a phase of low-speed growth, characterized by stable domestic production and a significant reduction in imports since 2025 [2][4][10] - In 2025, the total domestic coal production reached 3.97 billion tons, with a year-on-year growth of 1.5%, showing a recovery compared to 2024 [4][15] - The coal import volume from January to October 2025 was 388 million tons, a decrease of 11% year-on-year, primarily due to narrowing price advantages of overseas coal and adjustments in the international shipping market [4][15][27] Group 2 - Coal consumption continues to grow, with significant resilience in demand from the power and chemical sectors, reflecting structural changes in consumption patterns [3][5][56] - From January to September 2025, the total coal consumption was 3.57 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, indicating stable demand despite a slight slowdown [4][56] - The power sector remains the main driver of coal consumption, accounting for 63.5% of total demand, while the chemical industry has shown the fastest growth [4][5] Group 3 - Coal prices are expected to fluctuate within a reasonable range, with a "V-shaped" trend observed in 2025, where the average price for 5500 kcal thermal coal was 690 yuan per ton, down 19% year-on-year [9][10] - The price stabilization is supported by policy measures and cost factors, with projections for 2026 indicating a price range of 730-760 yuan per ton for thermal coal [9][10] Group 4 - The coal sector's valuation still has room for upward movement, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) expected to turn positive, presenting investment opportunities [6][10] - The coal industry is entering a new phase characterized by rigid supply, resilient demand, and cost support, which is likely to lead to a rebalancing of supply and demand [7][10] Group 5 - The investment focus in the coal sector has shifted towards downstream industries, with limited new coal production capacity being developed [42][44] - Major coal companies have seen a significant increase in construction projects, with a total investment of 208.7 billion yuan from January to September 2025, reflecting a trend towards integrated operations in power and chemical sectors [44][50]