消失的车市翘尾

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market is experiencing a significant downturn due to the exhaustion of various subsidy programs, leading to a lack of consumer enthusiasm and lower sales performance as the year ends [1][3][7]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The automotive market has cooled significantly, with many dealerships reporting low customer traffic and sales, contrasting sharply with previous years' year-end buying frenzies [1][3]. - In November, the national retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.225 million units, a year-on-year decline of 8.1% and a month-on-month decline of 1.1% [3][4]. - The decline in sales is attributed to the cancellation of national and local subsidies, as well as the anticipated introduction of a 50% purchase tax on new energy vehicles starting next year [1][3][7]. Group 2: Subsidy Policies - The central government has allocated automotive replacement subsidies until December 31, 2025, but many local governments have exhausted their funds early, leading to a pause in subsidies [1][5]. - The total subsidy budget for 2025 is set to double to 300 billion yuan, with a significant portion allocated for automotive subsidies, expected to exceed 180 billion yuan [5][7]. - Local governments are implementing their own subsidy programs to stimulate market activity, with some regions offering cash incentives for vehicle purchases [6][9]. Group 3: Industry Responses - In response to the market downturn, many automakers are introducing their own incentives, such as covering the increased purchase tax for customers who order vehicles before the end of 2025 but receive them later [2][8]. - Some companies, like Dongfeng Honda and Lynk & Co, remain optimistic about maintaining stable sales in the fuel vehicle segment and anticipate growth in hybrid and plug-in hybrid models [8][9]. - Automakers are developing strategies to adapt to changing policies and consumer demands, focusing on enhancing product offerings and ensuring compliance with local subsidy regulations [9].