Group 1 - The core viewpoint expressed by Anna Paulson, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, is her concern regarding the risks in the labor market, emphasizing that she is more worried about labor market weakness than inflationary pressures [1] - Paulson indicated that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve provides "some assurance" against further deterioration in the job market, highlighting a proactive approach to economic risks [1] - She described the current federal funds rate range of 3.5% to 3.75% as "slightly tight," suggesting that the cumulative effects of previous tightening policies should be sufficient to continue suppressing inflationary pressures [1] Group 2 - Paulson holds a relatively optimistic view on inflation prospects, suggesting that high inflation in 2025 will be largely driven by trade tariffs, with a likelihood of inflation decreasing in 2026 as these effects diminish [1] - The current state of the labor market is characterized as "bending but not broken," indicating a cautious outlook while awaiting more information from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in January 2026 to better assess economic prospects and policy risks [1] - The dual logic in the Federal Reserve's current decision-making is highlighted, where preventive interest rate cuts are aimed at addressing potential economic and employment downturn risks, while maintaining a tight policy stance to uphold anti-inflation credibility [2]
美联储官员保尔森：关税推高2025年通胀 明年有望回落
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-12-12 15:17