【环球财经】土耳其央行再度降息至38% 通胀回落显现改善迹象

Core Viewpoint - The Turkish central bank has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 150 basis points to 38%, indicating a continuation of the easing cycle as inflation pressures ease more than expected [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Conditions - Turkey's inflation rate in November rose by 31.07% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since the end of 2021 [1] - The central bank noted improvements in inflation expectations and pricing behavior, with weaker food prices being a significant factor for the lower-than-expected data [1] - The demand environment in the fourth quarter is generally favorable for a decline in inflation [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Decisions and Future Projections - The central bank has adjusted its rate-cutting pace throughout the year, initially resuming easing in July, followed by significant cuts, and then slowing down due to rising food prices [1] - Market expectations indicate that the central bank may continue to lower rates next year, with projections suggesting rates could drop to around 28% by 2026 [1] - The central bank has set a 2026 inflation target of 16%, with a forecast range between 13% and 19% [1] Group 3: Policy Stance and Future Considerations - The central bank emphasized maintaining a tight overall stance until price stability is achieved and will tighten policies if necessary [1] - Future interest rate decisions will be assessed gradually, focusing on actual inflation performance and trends to ensure alignment with the disinflation target [1]