11月马来西亚超预期累库背景下，12月棕榈油价格上行空间或有限

Core Viewpoint - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) released the supply and demand data for palm oil in November 2025, indicating a bearish outlook due to a significant drop in exports and higher-than-expected ending stocks, despite production remaining historically high [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Data - November palm oil production was reported at 1.9355 million tons, a decrease of 5.30% month-on-month, but an increase of 19.38% year-on-year [2]. - Exports fell sharply to 1.2128 million tons, down 28.13% from the previous month and down 18.45% year-on-year [2]. - Domestic consumption rose significantly to 418,900 tons, an increase of 71.75% month-on-month and 104.74% year-on-year [2]. - Ending stocks increased to 2.8354 million tons, up 13.04% month-on-month and 54.42% year-on-year, which was much higher than market expectations [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The report suggests that the palm oil market may continue to experience a loose supply-demand balance in December, with potential for further inventory accumulation due to weak domestic demand [1][4]. - Despite recent increases in domestic consumption, the sustainability of this trend is questionable, as it may be influenced by hidden exports [4]. - The price of palm oil is expected to remain under pressure, with projections indicating that domestic prices will range between 8,600 and 8,900 yuan per ton in December [5].