30年期美债收益率升至9月以来最高 几名美联储官员提及通胀担忧

Core Viewpoint - Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds have declined, with the 30-year yield rising to its highest level since early September, reflecting the gradual impact of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut on the bond market [1][6]. Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - The 30-year Treasury yield increased by 6 basis points to 4.86%, marking the highest level since September 5, with a cumulative rise of approximately 5 basis points for the week [1][6]. - The 2-year Treasury yield remained relatively stable, showing a slight decline compared to the previous week [1][6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated the possibility of further rate cuts, which surprised the market and was termed an "unexpected dovish cut" by economists at Bank of America [3][8]. - Expectations for additional rate cuts next year have led to a decrease in short-term Treasury yields, while long-term bonds reflect high inflation expectations [3][8]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid expressed concerns about inflation, which influenced their opposition to the recent rate cut and support for maintaining rates [3][8]. - Macro strategist Edward Harrison noted that Goolsbee's comments suggest downside risks for Treasury bonds, as traders anticipate two rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 [3][8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The recent auction results for the 30-year Treasury bond were strong, but there may still be upward pressure on yields, attracting buyers [4][9]. - Expectations for rate cuts are bolstered by the anticipated aggressive easing policies from Powell's successor and a decline in oil prices, which may alleviate inflationary pressures [4][9]. - Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson expressed that concerns about a weak labor market outweigh worries about rising inflation risks [4][9].