Partners Group's Anastasia Amoroso on private markets outlook for 2026

Core Viewpoint - The private equity (PE) market is expected to experience significant growth and favorable conditions leading into 2026, with increased transaction volumes and improved exit opportunities [1]. Private Markets Activity - Transaction volumes in private markets are projected to increase by approximately 35% year-over-year, bringing US levels close to 2021 figures, while Europe is expected to surpass those levels [2]. - Global M&A volumes have risen by about 40% year-over-year, indicating a robust environment for exits [3]. - The US IPO market has rebounded by around 70%, further supporting a favorable deployment environment [4]. Valuations and Entry Points - Valuations for private equity-backed companies are significantly lower than those in public markets, with EV to EBITDA multiples around 12 in private markets compared to 17 or 18 in public markets, presenting a favorable entry point for investors [4]. Private Credit Market - The private credit market has grown from approximately $600 billion in assets under management (AUM) to about $1.7 trillion, leading to increased media attention and headlines [6]. - Concerns surrounding private credit are often idiosyncratic and not necessarily reflective of the overall market conditions [5]. - The default rate for private credit, particularly for private equity-backed companies, remains low at around 1%, indicating stability in this segment [7].