Oil Sinks Despite Rate Cuts and Tanker Seizures

Group 1: Oil Market Sentiment - Oil market sentiment has deteriorated despite a Federal Reserve rate cut and aggressive actions by the Trump administration, with ICE Brent trading slightly above $61 per barrel, marking a two-month low [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its 2026 oil oversupply forecast down to 3.84 million barrels per day (b/d), a reduction of 250,000 b/d from the previous month, while increasing its demand growth forecast for next year to 860,000 b/d [3] - Russian oil production has reached 9.367 million b/d, which is only a slight increase of 10,000 b/d compared to October, leaving it 165,000 b/d below its OPEC+ quota due to disruptions from Ukraine's drone strikes [9] Group 2: Chinese Oil Demand - Chinese term buyers have significantly increased their nominations for Saudi crude to 49.5 million barrels, up from 36 million barrels in December, as Saudi Aramco has reduced its Arab Light differential to its lowest level in nearly five years [4] Group 3: U.S. Oil Industry Developments - The Trump administration's recent seizure of a Venezuelan VLCC tanker en route to Cuba is part of a broader strategy to intercept more vessels, indicating heightened tensions and potential military options regarding Venezuela [5] - The recent Gulf lease sale, known as Big Beautiful Gulf 1, generated $300 million for the U.S. budget, with major companies like BP, Chevron, and Woodside Energy participating actively, and Chevron's bid of $18.9 million for a Keithley Canyon block being the highest [6] - TotalEnergies has completed its takeover of a 40% stake in the Mopane discovery from Portugal's GALP in exchange for a 10% interest in Total's Venus project, resulting in a nearly 20% drop in GALP's shares [7]