Is CAT Finally Turning the Corner With Return to Revenue Growth in Q3?

Core Insights - Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) returned to revenue growth in Q3 2025 with a 9.5% increase after six consecutive quarters of declines, primarily driven by higher volumes contributing $1.5 billion (or 10%) to the revenue gain [1][8] - All business segments recorded volume growth during the quarter, marking a significant recovery, especially in Construction Industries and Resource Industries, which ended long periods of decline [2][8] Revenue and Volume Trends - The positive momentum in Q3 follows a $237 million volume increase in Q2 2025, which was the first positive movement after six quarters of contraction, supported by a $326 million surge in the Energy & Transportation segment [2] - Construction Industries returned to positive volumes after seven quarters of decline, while Resource Industries emerged from an eight-quarter slump [2] Market Conditions and Challenges - Previous declines in volume and revenue were attributed to weak demand, significant dealer inventory drawdowns, and the ongoing real estate downturn in China affecting large excavator sales [3] - Macroeconomic uncertainty and tariff-related pressures have further dampened the demand outlook, with the U.S. manufacturing sector contracting for nine consecutive months [3] Future Outlook - Caterpillar anticipates stronger year-over-year sales growth in Q4 2025, supported by improved volumes across all three segments [4][8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAT's 2025 earnings indicates a year-over-year decline of 15.98%, while revenues are expected to increase by 2% [12] Industry Comparisons - Industry peers such as Terex Corp. and Komatsu Ltd. are also facing challenges, with Terex experiencing seven consecutive quarters of negative organic growth in its Material Processing segment and Komatsu expecting flat demand for construction, mining, and utility equipment in fiscal 2025 [5][6] Stock Performance and Valuation - CAT shares have gained 72.4% year-to-date, outperforming the industry growth of 67.3% and the S&P 500's increase of 6.8% [7] - Currently, CAT is trading at a forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 28.86X, compared to the industry average of 26.12X [10]