Is CCJ Prepared to Offset McArthur River Losses With Cigar Lake Gains?

Core Insights - Cameco Corporation (CCJ) has reduced its 2025 uranium production outlook due to development delays at the McArthur River mine, which is the largest high-grade uranium mine globally [1][9] - The company's attributable uranium production for the first nine months of 2025 was 15 million pounds, reflecting a 13% year-over-year decline, with a significant 32% drop at McArthur River, partially offset by a 16% increase at Cigar Lake [2][9] - CCJ expects its share of uranium production from McArthur River to be between 9.8-10.5 million pounds in 2025, down from an earlier forecast of 12.6 million pounds, while the production estimate for Cigar Lake remains unchanged at 9.8 million pounds [3][4] Production and Operations - The Key Lake mill, which is the world's largest uranium mill, was shut down from September 3 to October 17 due to delays in transitioning to new mining areas at McArthur River, impacting third-quarter production [2] - Despite the challenges at McArthur River, strong performance at Cigar Lake and the McClean Lake mill is expected to help offset approximately 1 million pounds of the anticipated shortfall from McArthur River [4][9] Peer Performance - Energy Fuels produced approximately 465,000 pounds of uranium in the third quarter, with a year-to-date total of 1,245,000 pounds, and expects to mine between 875,000-1,435,000 pounds of contained uranium in 2025 [5][6] - Ur Energy is operating the Lost Creek project with an annual capacity of 1.2 million pounds and has received final approval for its expansion [7] Market Performance - CCJ shares have increased by 86.3% this year, outperforming the industry growth of 36%, the Zacks Basic Materials sector's growth of 29.8%, and the S&P 500's increase of 19.6% [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cameco's earnings for fiscal 2025 indicates a year-over-year growth of 95.9%, while the estimate for 2026 implies growth of 55.6% [10] Valuation Metrics - CCJ is currently trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 16.66, significantly higher than the industry's ratio of 1.44 [11]